Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:49:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfe3f…0fcf sports 809 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$40,105 (-9%) realized −$38,995 · open −$1,110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate64%520W / 287L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$572per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Fees−$4,453est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$12,872
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 -70.4% -73.2% 18% 15% -70.7%
≤30d 305 -23.9% -31.1% 52% 48% -28.6%
≤90d 807 -4.6% -13.7% 64% 61% -11.8%
all 807 -4.6% -13.7% 64% 61% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 61% -11.8%
10% -21.9% 50% -20.3%
15% ← realistic here -29.5% 35% -28.0%
20% -36.4% 19% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$680) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$457 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$38,995
Unrealized−$1,110
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses520 / 287
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$4,453
Open positions2
Markets (closed)807 / 809
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$572
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 807 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Nemesis 61¢ 0¢ $583 $0 −$583 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Team Nemesis 69¢ 0¢ $528 $0 −$527 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,319 +$679 +51%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $575 +$137 +24%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,134 −$1,123 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $685 +$506 +74%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $682 +$94 +14%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,349 −$1,335 -99%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $812 −$812 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $1,839 −$406 -22%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $738 −$724 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $874 −$873 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $901 −$884 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $976 −$969 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $966 +$300 +31%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $607 +$1,420 +234%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $544 +$222 +41%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $973 +$92 +10%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,023 +$105 +10%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,013 −$1,010 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,011 +$415 +41%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $925 +$487 +53%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $965 +$473 +49%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $863 +$80 +9%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $802 +$478 +60%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $139 +$33 +24%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $219 −$219 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $864 +$633 +73%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $796 +$60 +8%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $780 +$318 +41%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $817 +$152 +19%
Dota 2: 5chudsnoanchor vs Mit Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $191 −$191 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $2,178 −$2,178 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $603 +$254 +42%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $209 +$11 +5%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $258 +$565 +219%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 13 $700 +$190 +27%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $632 +$695 +110%
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Recrent Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Grou Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: enjoy boys vs Two Move (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $662 +$493 +74%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 13 $32 −$29 -91%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,524 +$117 +8%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 61¢ $590 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $1,998 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 69¢ $508 2h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 66¢ $20 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $7 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $280 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $7 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $444 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $16 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $7 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $14 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $142 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $7 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $6 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $13 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $6 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $129 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 66¢ $6 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 65¢ $238 3h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 55¢ $150 4h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 55¢ $6 4h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 55¢ $54 4h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 55¢ $6 4h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 50¢ $562 4h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 55¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 50¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 48¢ $44 4h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 46¢ $13 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.86 (match) · 3500 history records