Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FE 0xfe41…9d6c other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$58 (-19%) realized −$63 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$39per market

Trades / day8.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-22.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-14.4%	-22.5%	80%	20%	-32.7%
≤30d	5	-14.4%	-22.5%	80%	20%	-32.7%
≤90d	5	-14.4%	-22.5%	80%	20%	-32.7%
all	5	-14.4%	-22.5%	80%	20%	-32.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.5%	20%	-32.7%
10%	-30.0%	0%	-39.2%
15%	-36.7%	0%	-45.1%
20%	-42.9%	0%	-50.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -26% too few recent

Fragile wins

75% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$66 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.16 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized−$63

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$39

Trades / day8.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	100¢	$44	$50	+$5 (+12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco?	Jun 20	$42	+$3	+6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$40	+$2	+4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$36	+$4	+11%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	Jun 19	$33	+$2	+7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$67	−$66	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$44	1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco?	SELL No	100¢	$44	1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco?	BUY No	94¢	$42	4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$42	4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	96¢	$40	5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$40	5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	90¢	$36	6h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	SELL No	100¢	$35	6h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	BUY No	93¢	$33	7h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Türkiye vs.	BUY	10¢	$33	7h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Unite	BUY	10¢	$13	7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$67	34h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.60 · official $81.60 · 12 history records