Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe41…9f23 other 178 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (574 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13,003 (-39%) realized −$12,575 · open −$428
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate31%44W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day573.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$3,599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$526
world 35% −$313
politics 13% −$194
tech 5% −$149
economics 4% +$92
sports 3% +$65
finance 2% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (574 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -12.1% -20.5% 31% 8% -12.0%
≤30d 141 -12.1% -20.5% 31% 8% -12.0%
≤90d 141 -12.1% -20.5% 31% 8% -12.0%
all 141 -12.1% -20.5% 31% 8% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover573.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 8% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 5% -20.4%
15% -35.0% 2% -28.1%
20% -41.4% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$3,599
Realized−$12,575
Unrealized−$428
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses44 / 97
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions98
Markets (closed)141 / 178
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$185
Trades / day573.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 98 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $247 $247 +$0 (+0%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $200 $194 −$7 (-3%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 90¢ 86¢ $177 $168 −$9 (-5%)
Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 79¢ 68¢ $158 $136 −$22 (-14%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $133 $136 +$3 (+2%)
Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? No 99¢ 95¢ $139 $134 −$5 (-3%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 78¢ 76¢ $136 $132 −$4 (-3%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 71¢ 71¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 75¢ $121 $121 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 95¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 94¢ $94 $94 +$0 (+0%)
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? No 89¢ 99¢ $85 $94 +$9 (+11%)
Will Valantis launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $85 $94 +$9 (+11%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 75¢ 74¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 71¢ 62¢ $104 $92 −$12 (-12%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 44¢ $84 $89 +$5 (+6%)
Will Valantis launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 48¢ $84 $85 +$2 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $79 $76 −$2 (-3%)
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? No 86¢ 86¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $74 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 30¢ 26¢ $75 $64 −$11 (-15%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $58 $62 +$4 (+8%)
Will Bakir Izetbegović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? No 77¢ 48¢ $89 $55 −$34 (-38%)
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? Jun 18 $9 −$16 -172%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 Jun 18 $1 −$3 -350%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 18 $1 $0 +25%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 18 $1 −$1 -62%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -120%
Will Satanic be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -137%
Will Daniel Miller advance from the CA-26 primary election? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will GamerLegion reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Collapse be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -104%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31? Jun 18 $6 −$14 -222%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 18 $13 −$29 -223%
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -104%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $172 +$5 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 18 $244 +$2 +1%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $170 −$44 -26%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 18 $233 −$5 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $420 +$1 +0%
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 18 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $502 +$6 +1%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 18 $205 −$14 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,148 −$8 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $138 −$3 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 18 $122 −$4 -4%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Jun 18 $62 −$2 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $204 −$3 -1%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $23 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $55 −$7 -12%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 18 $170 −$44 -26%
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $47 +$6 +14%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $470 −$5 -1%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 18 $343 −$22 -6%
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Jun 18 $130 −$24 -18%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $248 −$7 -3%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $445 −$9 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 +$6 +23%
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? Jun 17 $234 −$5 -2%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 17 $120 −$7 -6%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $48 +$3 +7%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 17 $185 −$18 -10%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $228 −$21 -9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $765 +$172 +22%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $172 +$8 +5%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $215 −$100 -46%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 17 $42 +$124 +291%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $35 −$3 -9%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $267 −$12 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Messi 86¢ $22 0m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 4m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 4m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 5m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $246 11m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 72¢ $6 11m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12m
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Messi 87¢ $3 17m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 72¢ $17 25m
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 26m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 27m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 89¢ $22 31m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 32m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 89¢ $223 36m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 69¢ $17 44m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 11¢ $3 44m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 59m
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 33¢ $82 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Messi 83¢ $21 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 74¢ $0 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 90¢ $225 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $23 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,598.93 · official $3,600.92 (match) · 3500 history records