Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe41…556c weather 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,528 (-11%) realized −$10,522 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate68%45W / 21L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,476per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$572
7 days−$5,233
14 days−$4,509
30 days−$10,732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$8,402
other 36% +$1,089
weather 11% −$2,862
finance 2% +$114
politics 1% −$706
crypto 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.1% -27.8% 75% 12% -21.0%
≤30d 66 -8.5% -17.2% 68% 41% -19.9%
≤90d 66 -8.5% -17.2% 68% 41% -19.9%
all 66 -8.5% -17.2% 68% 41% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 41% -19.9%
10% -25.2% 27% -27.5%
15% -32.4% 17% -34.5%
20% -39.0% 11% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$1,562) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$869 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$5,154
Realized−$10,522
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses45 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage29d
Avg bet$1,476
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $5,160 $5,154 −$6 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10,102 +$127 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $4,740 +$445 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $5,010 +$204 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5,902 +$39 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $5,100 +$501 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $6,620 −$6,620 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $399 −$399 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $3,450 +$469 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,550 +$600 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $479 +$80 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $300 +$176 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $255 −$61 -24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $200 +$78 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $497 +$51 +10%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1,729 −$1,729 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $706 −$706 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $202 +$44 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $334 +$28 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 01 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$6 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $4,102 −$4,102 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $506 +$152 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 01 $127 +$25 +20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,000 +$114 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $4,000 +$311 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $5,700 +$277 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,505 +$1,129 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $381 −$63 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $157 +$73 +47%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 29? May 30 $502 +$48 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $1,138 −$1,135 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $439 +$22 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $4,850 +$349 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $807 +$160 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 28? May 28 $401 +$20 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $1,562 −$1,353 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 28? May 28 $521 −$498 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $301 −$299 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $290 +$112 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 28? May 28 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 28? May 28 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? May 28 $1,602 +$51 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 27? May 28 $601 +$22 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $677 +$44 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 27? May 27 $251 −$250 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 27? May 27 $27 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 27? May 27 $101 +$24 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5,164 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5,112 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5,001 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,177 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,007 14h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2,102 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,997 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,002 27h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2,003 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $3,007 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,969 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5,902 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $220 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $399 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $398 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1,001 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $491 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $503 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $906 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $549 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1,251 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $800 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $500 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $479 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $204 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $32 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $119 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $43 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $255 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 63¢ $300 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.