Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FE 0xfe43…8f09 sports 229 markets active 21h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,497 (-5%) realized −$1,497 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%146W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$328
7 days−$1,486
14 days−$1,368
30 days−$787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$229
other 41% −$1,281
crypto 1% +$2
world 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -66.3% -69.5% 29% 21% -77.3%
≤30d 57 -5.5% -14.5% 58% 56% -19.6%
≤90d 172 -5.6% -14.6% 63% 63% -16.6%
all 229 -6.1% -15.0% 64% 63% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 63% -14.6%
10% -23.2% 51% -22.8%
15% -30.6% 28% -30.3%
20% -37.4% 12% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$102 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,497
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses146 / 83
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions0
Markets (closed)229 / 229
History coverage128d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 229 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $138 −$138 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $192 −$188 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $227 −$223 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 +$3 +12%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $400 +$17 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$3 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $78 −$77 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $70 −$64 -92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $175 −$172 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $227 −$223 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $241 −$238 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 +$12 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $85 +$261 +307%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $68 −$67 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $138 −$136 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $54 +$79 +146%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $97 −$77 -79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $92 +$79 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $70 −$69 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 +$80 +134%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 14 $16 +$25 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $72 +$79 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +23%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $204 +$56 +27%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $39 −$39 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 11 $37 +$14 +38%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $335 +$120 +36%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 09 $205 +$27 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $22 −$22 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $97 +$39 +40%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 08 $326 +$56 +17%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $181 +$162 +90%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $311 +$112 +36%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $70 +$45 +65%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 05 $128 −$127 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs MANA eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 05 $68 +$27 +40%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $186 +$34 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $7 +$13 +188%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 02 $138 +$22 +16%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $205 +$199 +97%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $161 −$160 -99%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $130 +$40 +31%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $205 +$50 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $1 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $8 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $4 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $37 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $38 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $17 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $13 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $8 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $1 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $1 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $2 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $6 20h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Under 13¢ $3 39h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 32¢ $192 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $170 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $9 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $6 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $227 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $24 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $12 4d
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 96¢ $400 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $78 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL No $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $70 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $175 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 466 history records