Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:47:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe48…d18c crypto 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$481 (-10%) realized −$481 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%34W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$76
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$220
sports 35% −$271
world 9% −$84
other 8% −$6
politics 2% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -23.8% -31.1% 40% 20% -35.5%
≤30d 5 -23.8% -31.1% 40% 20% -35.5%
≤90d 15 -18.6% -26.4% 27% 13% -25.4%
all 76 -15.5% -23.5% 45% 36% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 36% -21.8%
10% -30.8% 32% -29.3%
15% -37.5% 29% -36.1%
20% -43.6% 22% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$29 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$481
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses34 / 42
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage213d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $57 +$42 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $57 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$25 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $106 −$96 -90%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$2 -12%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $113 −$46 -41%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $102 +$7 +7%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $202 −$4 -2%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $34 −$1 -2%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $51 −$6 -11%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 08 $105 −$3 -3%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $781 −$7 -1%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 07 $17 +$16 +93%
Will Kulman Ghising be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 09 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Mar 08 $35 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 07 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 07 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 07 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 07 $7 +$7 +112%
Will Gagan Kumar Thapa be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Rabi Lamichhane be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 07 $15 −$9 -59%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 06 $9 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 03 $23 +$16 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 02 $70 −$18 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 02 $25 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 02 $16 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 02 $20 +$2 +9%
Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 48.5 Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Giants vs. Raiders Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 02 $121 +$33 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 02 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 02 $70 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 02 $155 −$122 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 02 $30 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 02 $45 −$12 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 63¢ $202 3h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 73¢ $252 4h
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 0¢ $0 32d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 2¢ $10 32d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 24¢ $11 32d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 6¢ $16 32d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 19¢ $50 32d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 18¢ $102 32d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians SELL Mumbai Indians 24¢ $109 34d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 22¢ $102 34d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Lucknow Super Giants 56¢ $203 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $250.00 · 284 history records