Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:49:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FE
0xfe49…7a4c
world · 140 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$26,102 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18,430 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,993
Realized+$18,430
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses80 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions21
Markets (closed)121 / 140
History coverage27d
Avg bet$1,315
Trades / day124.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 21 History 121 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,618
7 days+$5,292
14 days+$11,152
30 days+$18,430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 82¢ 82¢ $1,640 $1,650 +$10 (+1%)
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,108 $1,115 +$6 (+1%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $954 $948 −$6 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 72¢ 90¢ $735 $922 +$187 (+25%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $644 $652 +$8 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $450 $350 −$100 (-22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 91¢ 100¢ $228 $249 +$22 (+10%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 73¢ $220 $243 +$23 (+11%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 87¢ 78¢ $218 $196 −$21 (-10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 54¢ 62¢ $108 $124 +$16 (+15%)
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? Yes 32¢ 50¢ $60 $93 +$33 (+55%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 69¢ 94¢ $66 $91 +$24 (+37%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $188 $56 −$131 (-70%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $61 $48 −$13 (-22%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $31 $41 +$11 (+36%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $27 $34 +$7 (+25%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $32 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 62¢ 50¢ $37 $29 −$7 (-20%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 58¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $27 $22 −$4 (-17%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 78¢ 95¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+22%)
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 9? No 6¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 21m? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $2,140 +$135 +6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $1,067 +$133 +12%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7,415 +$754 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +100%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2,622 +$2,590 +99%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $147 +$176 +120%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $110 +$204 +186%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $1,244 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $327 +$124 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $216 +$20 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $575 +$93 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $443 +$83 +19%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 12 $841 −$313 -37%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $4,156 −$435 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $2,947 −$8 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $1,685 +$10 +1%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $272 +$42 +16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $957 +$29 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $770 −$55 -7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $920 $0 -0%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 11 $74 −$2 -3%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $199 +$77 +38%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $200 +$50 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $301 +$9 +3%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 10 $580 +$10 +2%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $74 +$28 +38%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $10 +$9 +89%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $13 +$11 +89%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,046 +$149 +14%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $162 +$38 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $2,779 +$73 +3%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $548 −$306 -56%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $121 +$4 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $484 +$12 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $83 +$2 +2%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1,898 +$91 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $134 −$9 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $724 +$339 +47%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/25-5/31) Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? Jun 08 $477 −$56 -12%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 08 $31 +$3 +10%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 140k and 160k Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 52% +$11,937
crypto 28% +$3,559
other 11% +$2,089
politics 4% +$345
tech 3% +$420
culture 1% +$99
sports 1% −$23
finance 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 2h
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $126 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 5h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $2,275 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $393 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $99 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $613 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 54¢ $108 12h
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $72 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $280 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $0 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $111 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 20h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3,154 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 21h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,511 25h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $2 25h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $151 25h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -7.5% -16.3% 61% 33% +0.6%
≤30d 121 +18.7% +7.4% 66% 37% +0.4%
≤90d 121 +18.7% +7.4% 66% 37% +0.4%
all 121 +18.7% +7.4% 66% 37% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover124.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.4% 37% +0.4%
10% -2.9% 26% -9.2%
15% ← realistic here -12.3% 22% -18.0%
20% -20.9% 15% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,992.52 · official $6,992.01 (match) · 3500 history records