Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:31:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe49…18dd other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$4
other 18% −$2
politics 12% −$3
sports 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 +1.1% -8.5% 42% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 12 +1.1% -8.5% 42% 8% -8.9%
all 45 -1.9% -11.3% 24% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage267d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $76 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $73 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $65 +$4 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $117 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $7 +$1 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $69 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $108 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $1 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 30 $26 −$3 -10%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Oct 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Oct 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 02 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 29 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 +11%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $46 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $36 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $21 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $1 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $65 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $73 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $73 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $22 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $62 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.67 · official $45.67 (match) · 191 history records