Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:59:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfe4c…c712 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$12
politics 19% $0
other 9% $0
finance 9% $0
culture 6% +$1
crypto 6% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.6% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 8 +3.3% -6.5% 88% 12% -6.3%
≤90d 8 +3.3% -6.5% 88% 12% -6.3%
all 30 +1.4% -8.3% 57% 3% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 3% -7.9%
10% -17.0% 0% -16.7%
15% -25.1% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×7.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×24.1 per $1 lost it wins $24.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage256d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 93¢ 94¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $68 +$2 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $66 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $3 $0 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $66 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $59 +$8 +14%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $3 $0 +4%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 12 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 24 $23 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 23 $23 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $1 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Oct 10 $24 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $69 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $69 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $66 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $2 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $66 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $36 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $29 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $7 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $50 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $10 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $28 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $10 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $28 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $25 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $12 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $30 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 62¢ $40 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.19 · official $69.19 (match) · 94 history records