Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe53…df5c crypto 631 markets active 21h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-1%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate73%463W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$83
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$145
other 6% −$29
world 1% −$50
sports 0% +$75
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 +1.3% -8.4% 78% 19% -5.3%
≤30d 426 -0.6% -10.1% 83% 16% -9.6%
≤90d 455 -4.2% -13.3% 79% 15% -13.5%
all 631 -8.2% -16.9% 73% 21% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 21% -11.5%
10% -24.9% 7% -20.0%
15% -32.1% 4% -27.7%
20% -38.8% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses463 / 168
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)631 / 631
History coverage162d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 631 Trades
no open positions (73 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$50 +242%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$6 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 21h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $70 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 22h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1549 history records