Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FE
0xfe5b…37f1
other · 44 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$16 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$63
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses27 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage459d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 1 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 87¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $65 +$3 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $63 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $66 −$2 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $119 +$2 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4 $0 -10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Jul 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 20–27? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $17 +$1 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 20 $15 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 17 $1 $0 -19%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? May 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 10 $2 $0 +29%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 09 $13 +$3 +26%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $14 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 31 $14 $0 +1%
Suchir Balaji foul play determined before April? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $13 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 13 $11 $0 +2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Mar 11 $1 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 63% +$5
other 22% +$4
politics 6% $0
culture 3% +$1
tech 2% +$1
sports 1% +$1
crypto 1% +$2
weather 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $63 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $68 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $65 7h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $64 38h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $63 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $15 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $6 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $42 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $19 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $47 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $55 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $55 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $72 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $72 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $22 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $43 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $6 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $29 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $30 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $51 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 0% -8.8%
all 43 +0.4% -9.2% 63% 9% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 9% -8.2%
10% -17.9% 7% -17.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.82 · official $62.82 (match) · 126 history records