Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe5f…5984 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$8
other 18% $0
politics 7% $0
finance 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 8% -8.0%
≤90d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 8% -8.0%
all 40 -0.8% -10.2% 45% 2% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -8.5%
10% -18.8% 0% -17.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage445d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 83¢ 84¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 73¢ 48¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $96 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $9 −$1 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $42 +$3 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $58 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $18 −$1 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $40 +$5 +12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27? Jun 28 $1 $0 +3%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $12 $0 -2%
Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 23 $13 $0 +2%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $14 $0 +2%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 16 $12 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 15 $3 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 10 $4 $0 +10%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 10 $8 $0 +3%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 10 $11 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 08 $8 $0 -2%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? May 07 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting? May 05 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $51 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $46 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $6 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $40 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $4 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $50 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $50 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $37 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $45 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $49 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $34 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $34 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $44 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $43 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $13 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $3 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.32 · official $50.63 (match) · 144 history records