Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfe61…e9c2 crypto 1572 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$229 (-1%) realized −$234 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate58%853W / 622L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day66.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$504
7 days−$582
14 days−$591
30 days−$1,190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$537
weather 15% −$160
other 8% −$40
world 5% −$62
tech 2% +$7
politics 2% −$1
sports 2% +$6
finance 1% +$2
economics 0% −$8
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 348 -13.6% -21.8% 61% 23% -24.9%
≤30d 1156 -8.1% -16.9% 58% 21% -16.9%
≤90d 1475 -7.5% -16.3% 58% 23% -15.7%
all 1475 -7.5% -16.3% 58% 23% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 23% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 12% -23.8%
15% -31.6% 7% -31.1%
20% -38.3% 5% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$2,420
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses853 / 622
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions242
Markets (closed)1475 / 1572
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day66.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 242 History 1475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? No 56¢ 90¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+58%)
Will Solana dip to $60 June 15-21? No 99¢ 96¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 83¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? No 98¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 19? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$1 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? No 96¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 90¢ 99¢ $16 $17 +$2 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? No 77¢ 98¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+27%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 68¢ 84¢ $13 $17 +$3 (+24%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 90¢ 96¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 90¢ 92¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? No 57¢ 92¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+63%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 230 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 5? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 6? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 28? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 9? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 28? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 6? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 6? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 11? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 8? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Falkirk FC vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
SC Bastia vs. Le Mans FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 29? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 29? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 10? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on May 11? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 3? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 11? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 10? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 3? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 6? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 7? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-10? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 20? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 66¢ $8 21m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $11 26m
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 39m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 20? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 51m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 55¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 39¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 55¢ $6 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY No 97¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $12 2h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $12 2h
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 2h
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 59¢ $7 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 97¢ $11 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $12 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $14 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 5h
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 39¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $13 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? SELL No 89¢ $9 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 22? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,420.17 · official $2,417.90 (match) · 3500 history records