Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FE 0xfe6b…bc2a sports 341 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,318 (-8%) realized −$3,315 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%200W / 140L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$2,962
other 10% +$62
politics 5% −$937
world 5% +$864
economics 2% −$171
culture 1% −$499
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -11.1% -19.6% 50% 50% -10.3%
≤30d 51 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 55% -19.8%
≤90d 297 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 57% -19.7%
all 340 -3.1% -12.3% 59% 55% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 55% -16.9%
10% -20.7% 42% -24.8%
15% -28.4% 27% -32.1%
20% -35.4% 15% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$94 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$3,315
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses200 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions1
Markets (closed)340 / 341
History coverage231d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $48 $46 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $33 +$15 +46%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $62 −$18 -30%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $40 +$10 +26%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $50 −$47 -95%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $67 +$3 +5%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $39 +$28 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $172 −$97 -56%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $91 +$45 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $261 −$259 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $51 −$42 -81%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$75 +147%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $68 +$261 +383%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$15 +29%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$20 -89%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $176 −$134 -76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $74 +$81 +109%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $63 +$12 +18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $175 −$173 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $282 −$2 -1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $112 −$10 -9%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $128 −$14 -11%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$25 +25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $50 +$104 +206%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $83 +$15 +18%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $59 +$24 +41%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $49 +$9 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $69 −$68 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $58 +$10 +17%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $50 +$9 +17%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $233 −$230 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $186 +$47 +25%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $20 +$6 +32%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $136 +$44 +32%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $111 +$25 +23%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $70 +$41 +59%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 31 $62 +$7 +12%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $50 +$11 +23%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $237 −$234 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $186 +$51 +27%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $155 +$31 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $49 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 2h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 67¢ $33 3h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ $0 8h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 30¢ $10 8h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 68¢ $43 8h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 80¢ $51 9h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 99¢ $51 9h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 78¢ $40 10h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 3¢ $1 10h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $10 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 14d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 14d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 14d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 14d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $70 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 95¢ $67 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $67 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 57¢ $39 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $39 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 91¢ $36 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 19¢ $36 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 69¢ $136 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $136 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $91 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $91 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 55¢ $51 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $261 15d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 5¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.56 · official $45.56 (match) · 806 history records