Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe6d…40ee world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$10
other 36% +$11
economics 9% +$1
sports 4% −$10
tech 2% −$1
weather 0% +$3
finance 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.6% -11.0% 10% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 26% 9% -10.6%
≤90d 35 +53.9% +39.3% 31% 9% -9.9%
all 48 +38.5% +25.3% 40% 12% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.3% 12% -10.2%
10% +13.3% 8% -18.8%
15% +2.4% 6% -26.7%
20% -7.7% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +77% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 29
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage529d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $7 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $78 −$10 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $45 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $48 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $6 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 25 $3 $0 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $4 $0 +12%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $12 −$1 -7%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $135 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $72 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $242 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $25 +$15 +61%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $223 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $224 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $223 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $223 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $223 +$1 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $4 $0 -2%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-15? Mar 04 $3 +$1 +56%
Louisville vs. NC State Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Western Michigan vs. Akron Feb 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Eagles beat the Commanders by 7 or more points? Feb 05 $17 −$5 -31%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 22 $2 +$1 +90%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? Jan 10 $9 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $6 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $17 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $29 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $16 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $13 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $36 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $39 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.75 · official $28.75 (match) · 165 history records