Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfe6e…2313 crypto 1154 markets active 2d ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$706 (-5%) realized −$704 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%610W / 566L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day120.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$259
7 days−$843
14 days−$871
30 days−$989
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$643
other 7% −$37
sports 2% +$2
weather 1% −$55
world 0% +$7
politics 0% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 367 -21.3% -28.8% 42% 38% -26.7%
≤30d 1176 -11.1% -19.6% 52% 45% -15.7%
≤90d 1176 -11.1% -19.6% 52% 45% -15.7%
all 1176 -11.1% -19.6% 52% 45% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 45% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 31% -23.7%
15% -34.3% 22% -31.1%
20% -40.7% 17% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$704
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses610 / 566
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1176 / 1154
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day120.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Djurgardens IF win on 2026-05-31? Yes 37¢ 50¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+35%)
Will Mjallby AIF vs. Djurgardens IF end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 50¢ $4 $8 +$3 (+85%)
Will Mjallby AIF win on 2026-05-31? Yes 35¢ 50¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 386 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -581%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -1468%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +1732%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -1951%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -1100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$13 -6724%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -4831%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -728%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -5406%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$8 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$4 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$8 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$13 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$7 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$13 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 41h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $6 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $6 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $14 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.57 · official $69.60 (match) · 3500 history records