Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FE 0xfe6f…7b03 crypto 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 413d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$55 (+5%) realized +$78 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%40W / 69L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$41
crypto 24% +$113
politics 14% −$32
culture 3% +$5
sports 2% −$15
economics 2% −$16
tech 2% −$4
world 1% −$5
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -68.8% -71.8% 20% 20% -82.7%
all 109 +3.7% -6.2% 37% 33% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 33% -3.8%
10% -15.1% 29% -13.0%
15% -23.3% 26% -21.4%
20% -30.9% 24% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

413d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses40 / 69
Open positions16
Markets (closed)109 / 125
History coverage413d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $52 $39 −$13 (-25%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 13¢ $8 $27 +$19 (+248%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 59¢ 76¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+28%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 62¢ 77¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+23%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 62¢ 19¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-69%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 8¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-80%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $82 −$63 -77%
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $12 +$4 +30%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $12 −$7 -62%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 25 $48 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 11 $2 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 11 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 11 $1 $0 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 10 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 10 $2 +$2 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 10 $4 +$13 +315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 10 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 10 $3 −$3 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 10 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 10 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 10 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 10 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 09 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 09 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 09 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 09 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 09 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 09 $2 +$3 +130%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 06 $2 +$8 +376%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? Feb 06 $8 +$12 +150%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 03 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February? Jan 30 $30 +$5 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 6¢ $0 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 6¢ $3 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 6¢ $1 13d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $4 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 28¢ $16 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 26d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 28d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 62¢ $6 60d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 71d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 74d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 75d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 75d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 75d
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $3 86d
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $3 86d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 89d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 92d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 103d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 103d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 62¢ $6 124d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.86 · official $182.87 (match) · 755 history records