Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe70…bbe5 other 238 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 224L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$24
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$14
sports 22% −$28
culture 8% −$9
politics 7% −$10
economics 6% −$8
crypto 5% −$8
world 4% −$6
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 57 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 168 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.0% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×8.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage134d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $361 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $458 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $578 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $328 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $327 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $545 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $885 −$2 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $401 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $483 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $335 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $505 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $497 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $324 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $101 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $348 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $101 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $422 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $102 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $214 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 03 $282 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $602 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $519 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $581 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $548 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $220 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $106 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $650 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $107 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $95 17m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $95 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $95 6h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 8h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $95 9h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $95 10h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $95 28h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $95 29h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $95 31h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $96 32h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $96 34h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $96 36h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $96 37h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 39h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $96 47h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $96 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $96 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $96 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $96 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $96 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $96 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $97 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $97 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $97 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $97 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $97 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $97 3d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $97 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1296 history records