trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 67¢ | 68¢ | $24 | $24 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $26 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $26 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $26 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 08 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $57 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 06 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 05 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 04 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 03 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 03 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump out as President in 2025? | Dec 26 | $2 | −$1 | -31% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 24 | $15 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? | Dec 12 | $10 | +$2 | +25% |
| Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? | Nov 25 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Nov 25 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Buccaneers vs. Rams | Nov 25 | $7 | +$3 | +35% |
| Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 | Nov 19 | $9 | −$2 | -22% |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Nov 18 | $1 | $0 | -33% |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | Oct 12 | $1 | −$1 | -52% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Oct 11 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Oct 11 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Oct 10 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar | Oct 10 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Oct 10 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Oct 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? | Oct 10 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 09 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 43% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 42% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 42% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 29 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 34% | 7% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.9% | 7% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -20.3% | 7% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -35.1% | 0% | -33.2% |