Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe72…cb10 other 235 markets active 10h ago coverage 202d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 201d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,033 (+2%) realized +$11,033 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate58%136W / 99L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$2,716per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 202d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$9,801
politics 32% +$19,649
world 16% +$7,212
economics 4% +$3,126
tech 3% −$2,475
culture 3% +$3,637
crypto 0% +$180
sports 0% −$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +26.4% +14.4% 100% 33% +39.4%
≤30d 3 +26.4% +14.4% 100% 33% +39.4%
≤90d 3 +26.4% +14.4% 100% 33% +39.4%
all 235 +27.4% +15.2% 58% 21% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.2% 21% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here +4.2% 13% -13.2%
15% -5.9% 11% -21.6%
20% -15.1% 10% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$3,365) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$563 vs −$376 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,033
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses136 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage202d ⚠
Avg bet$2,716
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $21,430 +$15,615 +73%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $2,827 +$173 +6%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $4,986 +$14 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 07 $815 +$935 +115%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 26 $1,046 −$1,046 -100%
Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $1,820 +$180 +10%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 23 $1,558 +$1,952 +125%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $5,002 +$6,665 +133%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $39,490 +$1,492 +4%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japan Feb 07 $5,449 +$228 +4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 05 $1,965 +$115 +6%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 04 $4,896 +$641 +13%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 04 $2,960 −$160 -5%
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? Feb 03 $137 −$137 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Feb 03 $1,761 −$1,466 -83%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Feb 03 $4,022 +$259 +6%
US strike on Cuba by January 31? Feb 03 $3,910 +$124 +3%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? Feb 03 $4,026 +$163 +4%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 01 $1,128 +$522 +46%
Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31? Feb 01 $168 +$32 +19%
Clavicular charged by Jan 31? Feb 01 $972 +$28 +3%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 01 $8,894 +$1,501 +17%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026? Feb 01 $158 −$45 -29%
US bank failure by January 31? Jan 31 $30 +$470 +1567%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 30 $8 $0 +4%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $40 −$20 -50%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $1,326 +$85 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 28 $670 −$410 -61%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 28 $109 −$25 -23%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? Jan 28 $4,917 −$1,956 -40%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Jan 27 $1,900 +$87 +5%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m Jan 27 $1,902 +$88 +5%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 26 $219 +$506 +231%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 25 $6,540 +$690 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 25 $2,730 +$231 +8%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win more than 20% of votes in the first Jan 25 $960 +$40 +4%
Will António José Seguro win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first Jan 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port Jan 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will António José Seguro win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Po Jan 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the f Jan 25 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first Jan 25 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Po Jan 25 $554 −$509 -92%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win less than 16% of votes in the first round Jan 25 $964 −$964 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 22 $2,690 +$1,909 +71%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Jan 21 $6,483 +$445 +7%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win more than 22% of votes in the first r Jan 19 $19 +$1 +5%
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential Jan 19 $2,202 −$1,147 -52%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid Jan 19 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Po Jan 19 $12 +$1 +12%
Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal Jan 19 $761 +$1,173 +154%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14,166 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $2 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $48 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $79 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $69 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1,171 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $2,895 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $866 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $97 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $2 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $0 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $18 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $95 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $2 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $5 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $0 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $0 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $15,583 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $2 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $9 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $109 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1,811 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $886 32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $529 32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $4 32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $82 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records