Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe73…8e9a sports 20 markets active 13h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+6%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.7% -8.0% 31% 31% -2.0%
≤30d 18 -3.3% -12.5% 33% 33% -4.2%
≤90d 18 -3.3% -12.5% 33% 33% -4.2%
all 18 -3.3% -12.5% 33% 33% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 33% -4.2%
10% -20.8% 28% -13.4%
15% -28.5% 17% -21.8%
20% -35.5% 17% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs LGD Gaming 82¢ 93¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Spirit 89¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen (BO5) - UKIC Masters Divisi Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $1 +$4 +426%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 12 $1 +$4 +262%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Seize the day (BO3) - The Internati Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $2 +$3 +188%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $4 +$1 +24%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $4 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Stage Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 82¢ $4 12h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Team Spirit 89¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 28¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C BUY 100 Thieves 82¢ $4 34h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY Ground Zero 91¢ $5 34h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 78¢ $4 44h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 18¢ $1 45h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 11¢ $1 45h
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Misa Esports 32¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen (BO5) - UKIC Masters Divisi BUY Dripmen 23¢ $1 3d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY G2 NORD 24¢ $1 3d
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Seize the day (BO3) - The Internati BUY Seize the day 12¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G BUY MARKandLARRY 19¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G BUY MARKandLARRY 19¢ $0 4d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 13¢ $1 5d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 26¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Detonate 27¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs BUY F5 Esports 13¢ $1 5d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M BUY Geek Fam ID 34¢ $2 6d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 33¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Stage BUY L.820 22¢ $1 7d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In BUY Karmine Corp Blue 80¢ $4 7d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 87¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.23 · official $9.22 (match) · 31 history records