Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfe73…a9ea other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$375 (+74%) realized +$378 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$376
other 20% −$3
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% −$3
politics 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +51.4% +37.0% 100% 75% +82.6%
all 13 +2.2% -7.6% 85% 23% +76.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 23% +76.8%
10% -16.4% 15% +59.9%
15% -24.5% 15% +44.4%
20% -31.9% 15% +30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +102% too few recent
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$2 · ×15.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×83.7 per $1 lost it wins $83.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$378
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)13 / 20
History coverage137d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will USD/KRW hit 2000 (High) in 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kings vs. Flames Apr 18 $230 +$281 +122%
Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 13 $135 +$95 +70%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? Apr 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February? Mar 08 $4 $0 +3%
Will Bill Clinton say "Mossad" during his Epstein testimony? Mar 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will Teleflex (TFX) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week? (Feb Feb 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Feb 26 $1 $0 +10%
Will "luther - Kendrick Lamar With SZA" win Best Melodic Rap Performan Feb 26 $2 $0 +5%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 39 Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.64 · official $112.64 (match) · 31 history records