Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FE 0xfe75…81b1 other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$11
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$12
politics 21% −$7
economics 10% −$3
sports 7% +$4
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.2% +6.9% 33% 17% -7.4%
≤30d 18 +6.0% -4.1% 17% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 111 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 7% -9.6%
all 118 -0.3% -9.8% 11% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 7% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 6% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage97d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $277 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $11 +$12 +109%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $242 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $284 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $227 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $243 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $221 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $224 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $461 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 08 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 04 $239 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $239 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $242 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $243 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $223 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 28 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $462 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $249 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $231 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $236 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 4h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 5d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 47¢ $11 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $95 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 10d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 10d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 11d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 17d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 19d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 19d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 21d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.34 · official $195.34 (match) · 360 history records