Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe75…33a0 other 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 254L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$45
sports 24% −$22
economics 7% −$7
politics 7% −$6
culture 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$4
world 5% −$6
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)261 / 262
History coverage138d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $225 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $325 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $352 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $517 −$3 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $79 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $206 −$1 -1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $651 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $618 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $517 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $285 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $399 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $247 −$2 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $397 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $248 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $227 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $211 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $194 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $814 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $302 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $125 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $440 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $313 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $338 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 6h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 8h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 8h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 9h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 15h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 17h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 18h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 19h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 21h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 22h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 27h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 29h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 33h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 35h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 40h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 42h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $34 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $34 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 3d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 3d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.67 · official $52.67 (match) · 1393 history records