Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FE 0xfe76…ee91 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$431 (-19%) realized −$429 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$726
14 days−$726
30 days−$670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$746
sports 26% +$279
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -59.1% -63.0% 0% 0% -63.9%
≤30d 8 -15.2% -23.3% 12% 12% -57.1%
≤90d 10 -18.0% -25.8% 20% 20% -56.7%
all 13 -4.8% -13.9% 31% 31% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 31% -32.5%
10% -22.1% 31% -38.9%
15% -29.6% 31% -44.8%
20% -36.5% 23% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$105 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized−$429
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage123d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $170 $169 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $154 $153 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $135 −$91 -68%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $200 −$100 -50%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $225 −$201 -89%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $124 −$65 -53%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $303 −$221 -73%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $222 −$48 -21%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $27 +$73 +276%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $40 −$17 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 30 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Lille OSC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5 Mar 09 $5 +$5 +100%
Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5 Mar 04 $341 +$400 +117%
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 Feb 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $171 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 77¢ $155 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $79 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $44 29h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $60 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.50 · official $399.50 (match) · 80 history records