Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:50:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe79…af71 crypto 917 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$749 (-5%) realized −$749 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%462W / 455L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,012
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -16.5% -24.4% 42% 42% -19.9%
≤30d 84 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 48% -14.3%
≤90d 764 -20.6% -28.2% 41% 41% -30.2%
all 917 -3.1% -12.3% 50% 50% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 50% -15.1%
10% -20.7% 49% -23.2%
15% -28.4% 49% -30.7%
20% -35.4% 48% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$749
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses462 / 455
Open positions0
Markets (closed)917 / 917
History coverage124d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 917 Trades
no open positions (201 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$30 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $62 +$58 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 02 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 02 $80 +$74 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 02 $80 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $80 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 02 $79 −$77 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 01 $159 −$154 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 01 $80 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 01 $79 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 01 $79 +$58 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 01 $160 +$177 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 01 $79 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 01 $80 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 31 $79 +$61 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 31 $72 +$62 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 31 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 30 $41 +$28 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 30 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 30 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 30 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 30 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 30 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 30 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 30 $42 +$96 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 29 $41 +$37 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 29 $95 +$135 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 29 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 29 $34 +$29 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 29 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 29 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 29 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 29 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 28 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 27 $93 +$83 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $155 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $80 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $80 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $80 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $79 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $80 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $80 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $80 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $79 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $79 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $80 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $80 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $79 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $80 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1766 history records