Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfe7d…ed2c other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%16W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$47
politics 26% −$8
tech 4% −$3
economics 4% −$1
sports 4% +$55
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 +11.1% +0.5% 23% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 109 +3.5% -6.4% 15% 11% -9.5%
all 109 +3.5% -6.4% 15% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 11% -9.5%
10% -15.4% 11% -18.2%
15% -23.5% 9% -26.1%
20% -31.0% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses16 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage86d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $143 $143 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $130 $130 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $410 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $383 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $354 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 05 $153 $0 +0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 28 $72 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $353 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $72 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $89 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $344 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $319 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 05 $327 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $349 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $652 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $349 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $350 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $331 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $332 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $334 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $326 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $332 −$2 -1%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $336 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $325 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $356 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $347 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 18 $340 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $338 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $352 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $331 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $349 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $333 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,293 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $335 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $340 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $357 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $338 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $354 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $345 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 13 $355 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $397 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $143 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $73 4h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $74 7h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $130 6d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $74 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $74 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $71 22d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $72 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 23d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $72 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $52 24d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $72 24d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $153 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 28d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 28d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $5 29d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $46 29d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $47 29d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 31d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 31d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $343 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.85 · official $272.85 (match) · 276 history records