Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FE 0xfe82…d6a5 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 734d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$317 (-56%) realized −$323 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$264
other 33% −$105
world 12% +$25
sports 7% +$47
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +85.8% +68.1% 100% 50% +31.6%
≤30d 2 +85.8% +68.1% 100% 50% +31.6%
≤90d 2 +85.8% +68.1% 100% 50% +31.6%
all 16 -30.5% -37.1% 38% 31% -65.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 31% -65.3%
10% -43.1% 25% -68.6%
15% -48.6% 25% -71.7%
20% -53.7% 25% -74.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$38 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

734d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$323
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage734d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+20%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$25 +162%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score Jan 08 $15 +$22 +150%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-10? Jan 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Trump say "Australia" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 17? Dec 17 $5 +$3 +61%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Dec 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $255 −$255 -100%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Jul 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany win the 2024 Euros? Jul 08 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Scotland win? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Poland win? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ukraine win? Jun 22 $19 +$21 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.69 · official $85.69 · 35 history records