Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FE
0xfe87…83d6
other · 146 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$290 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$289 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$289
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses78 / 67
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage142d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 1 History 145 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Dragon Ranger Gaming 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage FULL SENSE 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs XLG Gaming 43¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Cloud9 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Secret vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Team Secret 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Fnatic 56¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +68%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$13 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $13 +$6 +43%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $10 +$2 +15%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $5 +$2 +47%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $5 +$3 +54%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $2 −$1 -73%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $27 +$4 +14%
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group May 10 $10 −$7 -66%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $30 +$16 +53%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs May 10 $10 −$5 -53%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alph May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Pla May 09 $30 +$17 +57%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr May 09 $20 +$21 +105%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr May 08 $6 +$9 +140%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 08 $41 −$40 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 08 $41 +$43 +105%
Valorant: Team Secret vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Apr 17 $30 −$3 -9%
Valorant: TYLOO vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha Apr 14 $25 −$11 -43%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Grou Apr 11 $21 +$5 +26%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 10 $20 +$3 +14%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Apr 10 $60 +$16 +26%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 2 Winner Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: All Gamers vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $30 −$24 -80%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $75 +$4 +5%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 14 $20 −$12 -60%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 14 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $127 −$98 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $9 −$3 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 11 $5 −$4 -72%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 10 $11 −$10 -90%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner Mar 10 $70 +$61 +87%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 09 $90 +$43 +48%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Play Mar 08 $59 −$8 -14%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 07 $20 +$8 +40%
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Mar 07 $735 +$87 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Mar 07 $20 +$7 +37%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Mar 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% −$389
sports 25% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 53m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 42¢ $17 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $0 2h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Team Vitality 71¢ $13 5h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 52¢ $10 6h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 6h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 12¢ $3 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 10h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $3 11h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $7 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 34h
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 36¢ $12 2d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $10 2d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL FUT Esports 41¢ $11 2d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 38¢ $10 2d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 24¢ $5 3d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta SELL Leviatán Esports 65¢ $7 4d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY Leviatán Esports 43¢ $5 4d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL FUT Esports 56¢ $8 4d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $5 4d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S BUY FULL SENSE 23¢ $5 5d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo SELL Dragon Ranger Gaming 3¢ $1 6d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 11¢ $2 6d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL NRG 80¢ $16 6d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 74¢ $15 6d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL XLG Gaming 23¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.2% -3.0% 71% 57% +5.5%
≤30d 14 +7.2% -3.0% 71% 57% +5.5%
≤90d 34 -10.5% -19.0% 56% 47% -1.2%
all 145 -11.8% -20.2% 54% 41% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 41% -11.9%
10% -27.8% 34% -20.3%
15% -34.8% 26% -28.0%
20% -41.2% 17% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.85 · official $28.85 (match) · 381 history records