Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe87…5ac1 weather 1148 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$185 (+1%) realized +$195 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate20%196W / 793L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day52.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$65
14 days−$112
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$403
politics 2% −$28
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +47.1% +33.1% 26% 11% -14.5%
≤30d 491 +14.9% +3.9% 21% 9% -11.0%
≤90d 989 +0.6% -9.0% 20% 7% -12.4%
all 989 +0.6% -9.0% 20% 7% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 7% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 7% -20.8%
15% -25.6% 7% -28.4%
20% -32.9% 7% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$195
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses196 / 793
Open positions7
Markets (closed)989 / 1148
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day52.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 989 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 98¢ 95¢ $96 $93 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? No 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $96 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $102 −$81 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $98 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$13 +650%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $98 −$67 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +102%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$38 +1897%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$45 +2133%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$17 +848%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $97 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $98 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 10¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 10¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $49 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $41 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $16 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $11 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $36 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $33 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $95 10h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $79 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 10¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 10¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 10¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.14 · official $190.91 (match) · 3500 history records