Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe87…86a9 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$195 (-10%) realized −$172 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day151.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$574
economics 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -25.7% -32.8% 30% 21% -39.4%
≤30d 47 -25.7% -32.8% 30% 21% -39.4%
≤90d 47 -25.7% -32.8% 30% 21% -39.4%
all 47 -25.7% -32.8% 30% 21% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.8% 21% -39.4%
10% ← realistic here -39.2% 21% -45.2%
15% -45.1% 19% -50.5%
20% -50.5% 19% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$30 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$172
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day151.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Up 55¢ 58¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 19 $57 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$58 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $114 −$46 -41%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $39 −$8 -20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$58 +111%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$5 -16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$89 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $65 −$7 -10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$54 +204%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $53 +$5 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $32 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $63 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$97 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$11 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $58 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$33 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$28 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 23m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 26¢ $53 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 25m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 26¢ $57 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $35 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $37 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.27 · official $107.27 (match) · 179 history records