Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfe89…f346 other 21 markets active 6h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 21L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$495per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$6
politics 25% −$4
world 13% −$1
crypto 12% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,180) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage78d
Avg bet$495
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,210 −$1 -0%
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,131 −$2 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,243 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $1,180 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 18 $1,185 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $147 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Apr 07 $124 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Apr 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Apr 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $139 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 02 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $63 5h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,209 6h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 6h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,184 6h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $26 6h
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 6h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $21 6h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 6h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,129 7h
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 7h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,131 7h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 27h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,247 27h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 27h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,196 27h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 27h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,241 27h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 27h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,229 28h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 28h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $855 28h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $14 28h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $276 28h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 29h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,133 29h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,255 2d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 2d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,240 2d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records