Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe8a…23ce sports 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44,132 (+33%) realized +$44,841 · open −$709
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%66W / 72L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$894per market
Trades / day108.3pace
Fees−$3,021est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,636now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,957
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -21.1% -28.6% 33% 33% -5.0%
≤30d 119 -3.1% -12.3% 45% 36% -21.2%
≤90d 138 -0.1% -9.7% 48% 38% -10.4%
all 138 -0.1% -9.7% 48% 38% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 38% -10.4%
10% -18.3% 31% -19.0%
15% ← realistic here -26.2% 19% -26.8%
20% -33.4% 9% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$1,118) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$261 vs −$256 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$1,636
Realized+$44,841
Unrealized−$709
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses66 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$3,021
Open positions10
Markets (closed)138 / 148
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$894
Trades / day108.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 82¢ 100¢ $522 $632 +$111 (+21%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Grind Back 72¢ 100¢ $402 $558 +$156 (+39%)
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Mentality Monster 78¢ 95¢ $298 $362 +$64 (+22%)
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner InterActive Philippines 31¢ 14¢ $94 $43 −$51 (-54%)
Game Handicap: Mentality Monster (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) InterActive Philippines 38¢ 11¢ $99 $29 −$70 (-71%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 88¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+55%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs InterActive Philippines 44¢ 5¢ $6 $1 −$6 (-89%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Carstensz 45¢ 0¢ $225 $0 −$225 (-100%)
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner InterActive Philippines 37¢ 0¢ $165 $0 −$164 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Carstensz 32¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Carstensz 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5) Carstensz 64¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $627 +$373 +60%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $401 −$115 -29%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $80 −$75 -94%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 20 $1,154 +$936 +81%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,344 −$335 -25%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $798 −$141 -18%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $667 +$231 +35%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 20 $593 −$578 -98%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Helioevaara/Patten vs Harrison/Skupski Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $227 −$222 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $67 −$59 -88%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $561 −$561 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,118 −$564 -50%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $680 −$429 -63%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $732 +$1,415 +193%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $187 +$85 +46%
Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 05 $329 −$229 -70%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,643 −$55 -3%
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 05 $100 −$76 -76%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $636 −$111 -18%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $569 +$181 +32%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 05 $127 −$114 -90%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $430 −$123 -29%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $35 −$33 -95%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $740 +$370 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $19 −$8 -43%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $134 −$45 -34%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $28 −$12 -44%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $93 +$25 +27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $18 −$14 -76%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $96 +$29 +30%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 05 $31 −$16 -53%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $177 −$27 -15%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $232 −$62 -27%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $266 −$69 -26%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $145 −$48 -33%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $58 +$13 +23%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $102 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $118 −$36 -30%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $64 −$39 -61%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $246 −$14 -6%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 05 $143 −$29 -21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 05 $652 −$114 -18%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $1,779 −$510 -29%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $395 −$298 -76%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1,606 −$319 -20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $1,031 +$60 +6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 05 $1,274 −$407 -32%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $2,571 −$109 -4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $26 +$24 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 12¢ $29 2m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 16¢ $1 2m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 28¢ $7 6m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 7m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 9¢ $2 8m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 8¢ $1 9m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 18¢ $1 11m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 16¢ $33 12m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 16¢ $7 12m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 16¢ $40 15m
Game Handicap: Mentality Monster (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1 BUY InterActive Philippines 16¢ $2 17m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 15¢ $1 19m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 61¢ $134 22m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter SELL Mentality Monster 84¢ $210 22m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 30¢ $72 22m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 28¢ $72 23m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 37¢ $94 24m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 37¢ $94 24m
Game Handicap: Mentality Monster (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1 BUY InterActive Philippines 39¢ $70 24m
Game Handicap: Mentality Monster (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1 BUY InterActive Philippines 39¢ $18 24m
Game Handicap: Mentality Monster (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1 BUY InterActive Philippines 39¢ $1 24m
Game Handicap: Mentality Monster (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1 BUY InterActive Philippines 39¢ $1 24m
Game Handicap: Mentality Monster (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1 BUY InterActive Philippines 39¢ $3 24m
Game Handicap: Mentality Monster (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1 BUY InterActive Philippines 39¢ $4 24m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $6 27m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter BUY Mentality Monster 79¢ $35 27m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 45¢ $111 27m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 53¢ $48 29m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 52¢ $26 30m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 52¢ $10 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,636.26 · official $1,636.26 (match) · 3500 history records