Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe8a…74d3 sports 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$447 (-5%) realized −$447 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate59%59W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$138
14 days−$145
30 days−$537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$520
weather 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -43.9% -49.2% 45% 8% -14.4%
≤30d 100 -9.8% -18.4% 59% 25% -15.4%
≤90d 100 -9.8% -18.4% 59% 25% -15.4%
all 100 -9.8% -18.4% 59% 25% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 25% -15.4%
10% -26.2% 13% -23.5%
15% -33.3% 10% -30.9%
20% -39.8% 7% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$32 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$447
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses59 / 41
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage25d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $2 −$2 -74%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $201 −$172 -86%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $200 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$19 +10%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $200 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$1 -3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $100 +$10 +10%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $100 +$10 +10%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$21 +21%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $131 +$26 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $131 −$30 -23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $120 +$1 +1%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $150 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $140 +$6 +4%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $30 +$17 +56%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $130 +$1 +1%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $40 +$17 +42%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $196 −$75 -38%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $160 +$14 +8%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 −$28 -92%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$10 +10%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $170 +$5 +3%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $191 −$8 -4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $250 +$2 +1%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $171 +$29 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $52 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 96¢ $50 4h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 83¢ $36 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY No $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun SELL No $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL Yes $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 13¢ $2 4d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY Yes $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 13¢ $28 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 89¢ $201 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $200 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 99¢ $200 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $220 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 91¢ $201 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $206 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 97¢ $200 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 56¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records