Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe8b…90fd crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$45 (+6%) realized +$46 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day51.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$76
other 13% +$1
weather 9% −$4
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -5.5% -14.5% 41% 32% -19.9%
≤30d 34 -5.5% -14.5% 41% 32% -19.9%
≤90d 34 -5.5% -14.5% 41% 32% -19.9%
all 34 -5.5% -14.5% 41% 32% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 32% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 29% -27.6%
15% -30.2% 26% -34.6%
20% -37.0% 21% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day51.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $59 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $75 −$37 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $17 −$8 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $89 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $66 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $53 +$16 +29%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $44 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$31 +175%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $10 $0 -4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 23 $5 $0 -5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 $0 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 23 $3 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 +$6 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$8 +181%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$6 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.89 · official $58.18 (match) · 168 history records