Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe8e…cfaa weather 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$305 (+3%) realized +$305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate71%116W / 48L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$184
14 days+$281
30 days+$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +26.1% +14.1% 66% 28% -5.6%
≤30d 164 +12.6% +1.9% 71% 21% -7.1%
≤90d 164 +12.6% +1.9% 71% 21% -7.1%
all 164 +12.6% +1.9% 71% 21% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 21% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -7.8% 13% -16.0%
15% -16.7% 9% -24.1%
20% -24.9% 6% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses116 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)164 / 164
History coverage16d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 164 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 +$28 +199%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$2 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $72 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $201 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $34 −$24 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$4 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $59 +$11 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$12 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $95 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$36 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $61 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $92 +$34 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$40 +2652%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $275 −$15 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $13 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$21 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $42 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$7 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $138 +$14 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $61 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $54 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $60 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $246 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $135 +$30 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 −$3 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $78 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $216 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $47 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $52 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $69 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $35 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $13 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $16 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 18¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $25 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 57¢ $6 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 728 history records