Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FE
0xfe8f…3076
crypto · 105 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$8 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$11
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses65 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)98 / 105
History coverage113d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 7 History 98 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$14
14 days+$15
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 71¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+65%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 80¢ 40¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-51%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Yes 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Iran leadership change by May 31? Yes 29¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Team Falcons 76¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3 +$3 +109%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $2 +$11 +551%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $1 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $1 +$1 +65%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $2 +$2 +92%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $2 +$2 +113%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? May 08 $2 +$8 +378%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $2 −$1 -70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 04 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1 $0 +7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 18 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 12 $3 −$2 -60%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 12 $1 $0 -12%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 08 $1 +$1 +109%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $1 $0 +48%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $1 +$1 +60%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $1 +$1 +79%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $1 +$1 +103%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026? Apr 07 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Apr 06 $1 $0 +20%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026? Apr 05 $4 $0 +2%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 05 $1 $0 +15%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 4, 2026? Apr 05 $1 $0 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 05 $1 $0 +6%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $2 $0 -20%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand Apr 03 $6 −$4 -66%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 2, 2026? Apr 03 $3 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% +$11
crypto 33% −$4
sports 14% −$5
politics 7% +$7
other 6% −$1
finance 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $1 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 6d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 6d
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No $1 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No $1 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 93¢ $13 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 18d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 18d
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 18d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $1 21d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 22d
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 20 BUY Yes $1 25d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +120.4% +99.4% 67% 67% +118.2%
≤30d 11 +71.6% +55.3% 73% 55% +79.9%
≤90d 52 -6.4% -15.3% 48% 33% -6.3%
all 98 +1.4% -8.2% 66% 43% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 43% -3.7%
10% -17.0% 28% -12.9%
15% -25.0% 22% -21.3%
20% -32.4% 15% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.54 · official $10.54 (match) · 261 history records