Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:02:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe92…8c7f crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-18%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.2% -20.6% 73% 45% -26.5%
≤30d 11 -12.2% -20.6% 73% 45% -26.5%
≤90d 11 -12.2% -20.6% 73% 45% -26.5%
all 11 -12.2% -20.6% 73% 45% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 45% -26.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 27% -33.5%
15% -35.1% 9% -40.0%
20% -41.5% 9% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records