Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FE 0xfe93…fdb3 crypto 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate70%88W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$62
14 days+$4
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$9
finance 15% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.9% -6.0% 78% 48% -2.4%
≤30d 125 +2.2% -7.5% 70% 49% -9.8%
≤90d 125 +2.2% -7.5% 70% 49% -9.8%
all 125 +2.2% -7.5% 70% 49% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 49% -9.8%
10% -16.4% 36% -18.5%
15% -24.5% 26% -26.3%
20% -31.9% 18% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses88 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage29d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$8 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $90 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$2 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$3 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$4 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $142 −$8 -6%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$84 +81%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$8 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$7 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $40 −$40 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $40 +$7 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$8 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $35 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 5? Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 +$10 +96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 3? Jun 03 $40 +$8 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 3? Jun 03 $51 +$23 +45%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 1? Jun 02 $50 +$7 +13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 1? Jun 02 $102 +$77 +76%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 1? Jun 02 $15 +$5 +32%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 31 $126 −$23 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 31 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 31 $25 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 31 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $25 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 16m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $90 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $60 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records