Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:31:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfe93…0d83 crypto 133 markets active 22h ago coverage 9d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,888 (+8%) realized +$1,916 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%39W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Fees−$356est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$180
crypto 50% −$1,153
other 1% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -8.5% -17.2% 30% 29% -12.7%
≤30d 132 -11.7% -20.1% 30% 28% -16.4%
≤90d 132 -11.7% -20.1% 30% 28% -16.4%
all 132 -11.7% -20.1% 30% 28% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 28% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 27% -24.4%
15% -34.7% 27% -31.7%
20% -41.1% 24% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$93 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,468
Realized+$1,916
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses39 / 93
Est. fees paid−$356
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage9d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 26¢ $1,495 $1,468 −$28 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $408 −$389 -96%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $41 −$8 -18%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $41 −$7 -16%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $41 −$6 -15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 16 $51 −$4 -8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $57 −$6 -11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 16 $101 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $605 −$574 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $263 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$77 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $289 −$275 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $265 −$250 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $380 −$360 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $264 −$157 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $758 +$49 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $133 +$258 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $264 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $69 −$65 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$775 +731%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $73 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$25 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$148 +558%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,033 −$115 -6%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$29 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$148 +146%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $105 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$96 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $131 −$75 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $130 +$289 +223%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,517 +$394 +26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $51 −$41 -79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$24 -47%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$60 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$72 -96%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $1,528 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $408 22h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $34 22h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $34 22h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $35 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 28¢ $47 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 26¢ $49 22h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $50 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 54¢ $95 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 26¢ $94 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $317 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $277 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $263 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $28 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $263 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $79 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $186 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $350 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $87 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $264 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $107 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $53 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,467.62 · official $1,467.62 (match) · 384 history records