Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfe93…6429 crypto 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$76 (+8%) realized +$99 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%24W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$98
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% −$38
other 28% −$54
sports 28% +$176
world 9% −$18
tech 3% −$21
politics 2% +$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +11.6% +1.0% 52% 48% +15.6%
≤30d 62 -11.9% -20.3% 39% 34% +2.9%
≤90d 62 -11.9% -20.3% 39% 34% +2.9%
all 62 -11.9% -20.3% 39% 34% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 34% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 26% -7.0%
15% -34.9% 19% -16.0%
20% -41.3% 16% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses24 / 38
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)62 / 67
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026? Yes 67¢ 47¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-20%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $87 +$30 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$14 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $38 +$37 +98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$4 -7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$16 -55%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $60 +$17 +28%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $12 +$7 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 13 $13 −$10 -77%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +60%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $16 +$57 +349%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$13 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 10 $18 −$16 -92%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $2 $0 -21%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -45%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $3 +$1 +22%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $11 −$6 -55%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Jun 08 $17 −$7 -41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -38%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? Jun 07 $5 $0 -9%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO Jun 07 $1 $0 -42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $16 −$1 -3%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 04 $7 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 04 $37 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 04 $17 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 04 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $53 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $12 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $47 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $52 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.88 · official $8.81 (match) · 267 history records