Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FE 0xfe95…7b98 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$318 (+12%) realized +$318 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate80%36W / 9L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$300
crypto 23% +$17
other 19% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 4 +4.3% -5.6% 100% 0% -5.5%
≤90d 10 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.5%
all 45 +5.2% -4.8% 80% 2% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 2% +1.7%
10% -13.9% 2% -8.1%
15% -22.2% 2% -16.9%
20% -29.9% 2% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$0 · ×30.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×137.54 per $1 lost it wins $137.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses36 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage550d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $35 +$3 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $17 +$1 +4%
Will BNB dip to $500 in April? May 10 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 10 $18 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 25 $17 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? Mar 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December? Jan 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December? Jan 26 $16 $0 +0%
Islanders vs. Devils Nov 11 $218 +$302 +138%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 10 $13 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 10 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $165 in September? Oct 26 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Oct 26 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Sep 26 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 26 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? Aug 26 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 26 $27 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 24 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 24 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 26 $18 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 26 $17 +$1 +9%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 26 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $21 $0 +1%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Mar 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $13 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $14 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? Jan 06 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 21 $15 $0 +0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Dec 16 $210 $0 -0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Dec 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 16 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Paolo Banchero lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 16 $219 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $38 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 91¢ $35 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 97¢ $17 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $17 23d
Will BNB dip to $500 in April? BUY No 98¢ $15 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $18 55d
Will Solana reach $110 in March? BUY No 98¢ $16 84d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $17 84d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 98¢ $16 113d
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? BUY No 98¢ $16 113d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 98¢ $15 143d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 96¢ $16 143d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $16 173d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December? BUY No 99¢ $15 173d
Islanders vs. Devils BUY Islanders 42¢ $218 220d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 97¢ $28 235d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 98¢ $13 235d
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? BUY No 98¢ $27 265d
Will Solana dip to $165 in September? BUY No 95¢ $13 265d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 97¢ $24 296d
Will Solana reach $250 in August? BUY No 96¢ $15 296d
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? BUY No 92¢ $10 329d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 98¢ $27 329d
Will Solana reach $180 in June? BUY No 96¢ $14 358d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $22 358d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 99¢ $18 388d
Will Solana reach $210 in May? BUY No 92¢ $17 388d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 421d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 97¢ $19 421d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 94 history records