Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe98…5dc8 other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-2%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$3
sports 24% −$6
crypto 16% $0
politics 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.1% -10.6% 58% 58% +1.7%
≤30d 15 -5.3% -14.3% 60% 60% -8.7%
≤90d 24 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 54% -12.2%
all 24 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 54% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 54% -12.2%
10% -16.7% 33% -20.6%
15% -24.8% 33% -28.3%
20% -32.1% 25% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage52d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +39%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +112%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -71%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +81%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 07 $2 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $3 $0 -16%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $2 $0 +19%
Will FC Cajamarca win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $6 −$2 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1? May 01 $1 +$2 +153%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1 +$1 +131%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 14m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 16m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 45h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 45h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 7d
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.40 · official $4.40 (match) · 55 history records