Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
FE 0xfe99…a1e1 sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$7,424 (+61%) realized +$7,424 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%40W / 41L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$2,409
14 days+$4,002
30 days+$4,060
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$5,651
other 13% +$1,034
world 1% −$100
crypto 1% −$68
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+49.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +106.3% +86.7% 46% 46% +56.4%
≤30d 38 +115.0% +94.6% 50% 50% +63.7%
≤90d 81 +65.0% +49.2% 49% 49% +44.4%
all 81 +65.0% +49.2% 49% 49% +44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.2% 49% +44.4%
10% +35.0% 49% +30.6%
15% +21.9% 47% +18.0%
20% +10.0% 47% +6.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +103% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$276 vs −$111 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,424
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses40 / 41
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage58d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $102 +$142 +140%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $204 +$402 +197%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $231 −$226 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$199 +388%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $128 +$1,008 +785%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $163 −$160 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $204 +$262 +129%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $341 +$373 +109%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $164 −$160 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $204 +$402 +197%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$213 +70%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $51 +$403 +784%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $153 +$272 +178%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $31 +$269 +874%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 +$241 +119%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $203 +$197 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $85 −$83 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $204 −$160 -78%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $123 +$1,146 +930%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $69 −$67 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $122 +$193 +158%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $154 +$80 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $265 +$61 +23%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $33 −$2 -7%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 21 $37 −$37 -98%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 21 $10 +$7 +66%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 20 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $171 +$165 +97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $118 +$195 +165%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $146 +$212 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 16 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards May 16 $101 +$93 +92%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $165 +$250 +152%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) May 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 36¢ $204 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $102 3h
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Exact Score: En BUY $21 10h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $231 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 21h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $103 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $128 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY $21 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $163 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 82¢ $466 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $204 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Bra BUY $14 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $341 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $164 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $204 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $517 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $454 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $204 6d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 91¢ $425 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records