Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FE 0xfe9b…cbe5 sports 502 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,940 (+4%) realized +$2,065 · open −$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%208W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$630est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$172
7 days−$646
14 days+$37
30 days+$2,343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,344
other 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -28.3% -35.2% 33% 33% -31.6%
≤30d 177 +15.8% +4.8% 42% 42% +3.6%
≤90d 416 +20.4% +8.9% 42% 41% -5.8%
all 501 +18.6% +7.3% 42% 40% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 40% -6.7%
10% -3.0% 39% -15.6%
15% -12.3% 37% -23.8%
20% -20.9% 34% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$79 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,065
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses208 / 293
Est. fees paid−$630
Open positions1
Markets (closed)501 / 502
History coverage233d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 501 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) FURIA 20¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 272 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $149 −$146 -98%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $67 +$39 +59%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $125 −$123 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $154 −$153 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $119 −$117 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $0 $0 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $145 −$142 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $75 −$74 -98%
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) Jun 14 $91 −$89 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $122 +$148 +121%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $48 +$99 +206%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $100 +$70 +70%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $56 +$54 +97%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $102 +$125 +122%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $43 −$42 -98%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 11 $37 +$56 +152%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $201 +$305 +152%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$74 +74%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $304 +$284 +93%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $62 +$55 +90%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $76 +$17 +22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $154 +$152 +99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Ursa (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) Jun 11 $50 +$195 +388%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 11 $287 +$49 +17%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $70 +$71 +101%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $26 +$148 +576%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $82 −$80 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) Jun 10 $0 +$9 +1900%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $11 +$80 +712%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs FULL SENSE (+2.5) Jun 10 $36 +$64 +180%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Stage Jun 09 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $83 −$12 -15%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $203 −$21 -10%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 09 $52 −$51 -98%
Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 09 $81 −$79 -98%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 09 $46 +$95 +206%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $518 +$321 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 21¢ $36 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 20¢ $41 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 20¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 41¢ $102 3h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 38¢ $47 3h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Alpha Gaming 30¢ $27 34h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 45¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 62¢ $67 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 9¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 40¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 40¢ $37 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $203 3d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 14¢ $8 4d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 70¢ $154 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 49¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 41¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Nexus 43¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Nexus 43¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Nexus 43¢ $17 4d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Nexus 44¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Nexus 45¢ $60 4d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY fnatic 32¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 59¢ $43 4d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 32¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Noir Verse 34¢ $75 4d
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) BUY BASEMENT BOYS 39¢ $91 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 32¢ $102 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 50¢ $10 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 44¢ $112 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.31 · official $0.31 (match) · 1075 history records