Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FE 0xfe9c…ae8e sports 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$158 (+5%) realized +$160 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%22W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$150
14 days+$137
30 days+$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$299
world 24% +$307
other 16% +$121
finance 12% −$51
culture 3% −$2
crypto 1% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +44.5% +30.8% 31% 31% +27.0%
≤30d 24 +17.0% +5.8% 33% 33% +11.7%
≤90d 27 +4.0% -5.9% 30% 30% +8.9%
all 75 -20.5% -28.1% 29% 28% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 28% -4.4%
10% -35.0% 27% -13.6%
15% -41.3% 24% -21.9%
20% -47.0% 21% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$19 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$160
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses22 / 53
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage147d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$29 +282%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$24 +95%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 −$10 -16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$41 +270%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 +$339 +1101%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $119 −$116 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $47 −$46 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $31 −$28 -91%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $437 +$150 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $103 +$30 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $64 +$83 +129%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Apr 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Yi Wei win on 2026-04-12 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? Feb 28 $28 +$73 +257%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 22 $19 +$9 +48%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 20 $19 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 16 $53 −$28 -53%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 12? Feb 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 11 $84 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Feb 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Feb 07 $69 −$2 -2%
Will Denis Lazavik win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 07 $40 −$40 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $7 −$7 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 4? Feb 04 $43 +$5 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Feb 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Feb 03 $18 +$42 +231%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Feb 03 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Feb 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 03 $44 −$44 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 3? Feb 03 $243 −$8 -3%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 02 $80 −$46 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 7m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $39 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $8 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 49¢ $42 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $20 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $10 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $82 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 91¢ $57 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 24¢ $15 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 96¢ $370 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.18 · official $78.18 (match) · 229 history records