Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfea0…318f other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$110 (-8%) realized −$44 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$65
world 24% −$60
culture 16% +$65
sports 15% −$100
economics 6% −$24
politics 3% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -60.8% -64.5% 33% 33% -24.7%
≤90d 7 -62.8% -66.3% 29% 29% -18.2%
all 32 -30.4% -37.0% 41% 31% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.0% 31% -12.0%
10% -43.0% 28% -20.4%
15% -48.5% 28% -28.1%
20% -53.6% 22% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$20 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage279d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 74¢ $28 $37 +$9 (+34%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $14 $7 −$6 (-46%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-85%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $32 +$6 +18%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 15 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awa Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 02 $138 +$11 +8%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 27 $19 +$11 +59%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Feb 27 $40 +$60 +151%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition Feb 27 $73 +$27 +37%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 11 $164 +$82 +50%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Pr Dec 10 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 10 $18 +$29 +164%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Dec 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Pri Dec 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and Nov 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? Oct 27 $14 −$14 -100%
US government shutdown in 2025? Oct 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 14 $120 +$4 +4%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $5 −$2 -44%
Israel strike on Yemen by September 30? Sep 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference? Sep 18 $19 +$35 +182%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference? Sep 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Xtreme Gaming Sep 18 $106 −$86 -81%
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 14 $158 +$16 +10%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs. BetBoom Team Sep 13 $31 +$19 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $28 1h
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P BUY Yes 62¢ $7 11d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri SELL No 75¢ $38 11d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY No 63¢ $32 11d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 29¢ $5 20d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 29¢ $0 20d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 70¢ $70 57d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 98d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 102d
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? SELL Israel 77¢ $77 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 108d
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 108d
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? SELL Israel 72¢ $72 109d
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? BUY Israel 69¢ $69 109d
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? BUY Israel 69¢ $69 109d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $19 155d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 27¢ $27 192d
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Pr BUY No 60¢ $15 193d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 193d
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Pri BUY Yes 48¢ $24 193d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 193d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 193d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 193d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 193d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 199d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 199d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 199d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 23¢ $28 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.63 · official $47.89 · 113 history records