Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfea4…4a77 weather 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$224 (-1%) realized −$223 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate70%89W / 38L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$105
14 days+$107
30 days−$519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$387
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +7.1% -3.1% 90% 45% +1.3%
≤30d 112 -8.5% -17.2% 69% 21% -11.8%
≤90d 127 -7.0% -15.8% 70% 20% -11.0%
all 127 -7.0% -15.8% 70% 20% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 20% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 9% -19.5%
15% -31.2% 5% -27.3%
20% -38.0% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$43 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$223
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses89 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage32d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 26? No 96¢ 97¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 26? Jun 25 $51 +$9 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 26? Jun 25 $19 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $44 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $66 +$6 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 25? Jun 24 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 24? Jun 24 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 24? Jun 24 $44 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $39 −$21 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $13 −$11 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 24? Jun 23 $87 +$13 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $75 +$25 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22? Jun 22 $62 +$25 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $56 +$9 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $52 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $47 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $31 +$17 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $24 +$6 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $107 −$74 -69%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $67 +$17 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$24 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$5 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $44 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$11 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 +$7 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $268 −$237 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $88 −$85 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $300 +$11 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 6? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -88%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 6? Jun 05 $190 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $304 +$20 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $231 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $254 +$15 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 5? Jun 04 $7 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $282 −$10 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $337 −$253 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $532 −$54 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $485 −$26 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? Jun 03 $7 −$2 -26%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $175 −$44 -25%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $170 +$26 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $56 −$7 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $97 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $59 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $19 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $19 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 26? BUY No 84¢ $34 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 26? BUY No 83¢ $17 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $73 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $41 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 89¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $46 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 90¢ $16 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $47 34h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 34h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 94¢ $8 37h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 94¢ $16 37h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 94¢ $14 37h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 41h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $46 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? SELL No 35¢ $14 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? SELL No 35¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 99¢ $50 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 47h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $48 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 77¢ $39 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.10 · official $117.10 (match) · 1025 history records