Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfea8…47aa sports 181 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$21,549 (-5%) realized −$21,087 · open −$462
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate74%128W / 44L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,315per market
Trades / day108.3pace
Fees−$2,799est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$21,610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$8,309
sports 37% −$11,679
politics 4% −$382
crypto 4% +$4,373
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +6.0% -4.1% 82% 39% -6.7%
≤30d 172 +15.3% +4.3% 74% 38% -9.3%
≤90d 172 +15.3% +4.3% 74% 38% -9.3%
all 172 +15.3% +4.3% 74% 38% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.3% 38% -9.3%
10% -5.7% 23% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -14.8% 21% -25.9%
20% -23.2% 19% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$2,703) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$802 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$21,610
Realized−$21,087
Unrealized−$462
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses128 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$2,799
Open positions9
Markets (closed)172 / 181
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$2,315
Trades / day108.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? No 98¢ 96¢ $4,539 $4,460 −$79 (-2%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? No 88¢ 88¢ $4,008 $4,031 +$23 (+1%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? No 92¢ 92¢ $4,008 $4,004 −$4 (-0%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? No 93¢ 92¢ $4,008 $3,988 −$19 (-0%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 76¢ 78¢ $1,675 $1,733 +$58 (+3%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 25¢ 20¢ $1,573 $1,289 −$283 (-18%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,285 $1,284 −$1 (-0%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? No 87¢ 88¢ $264 $266 +$2 (+1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $305 $148 −$157 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Who wi Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,703 +$1,392 +52%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 15 $6,453 +$118 +2%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2,935 +$326 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,233 +$2,798 +66%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8,016 +$422 +5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $4,008 +$547 +14%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $4,008 +$396 +10%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3,318 +$632 +19%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12,785 +$51 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $14,736 +$211 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $870 +$119 +14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $1,660 +$28 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,672 +$102 +4%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $5,870 +$686 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? Jun 14 $93 −$2 -2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos Jun 14 $93 +$114 +122%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins Jun 14 $91 −$84 -92%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $620 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $4,023 +$549 +14%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $29 +$4 +15%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $4,023 +$447 +11%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $4,038 +$603 +15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,023 +$126 +3%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $549 +$77 +14%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $1,941 +$146 +8%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $2,922 +$221 +8%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $2,682 +$162 +6%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $6,438 +$718 +11%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $335 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $2,683 +$180 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $3,548 −$3,548 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5,612 +$516 +9%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1,341 $0 -0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand - Who wins the to Jun 13 $153 +$187 +122%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $5,388 −$4,683 -87%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa - Who wins the tos Jun 13 $53 −$51 -96%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t Jun 13 $152 +$174 +114%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? Jun 13 $194 +$44 +23%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $188 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4,023 +$497 +12%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1,536 +$90 +6%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2,682 +$202 +8%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2,682 +$473 +18%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4,128 +$563 +14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5,364 +$11 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $395 +$49 +12%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $9,703 +$77 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2,682 +$401 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 87¢ $162 1m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 87¢ $32 6m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 87¢ $13 6m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 87¢ $32 9m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 87¢ $24 9m
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 98¢ $3,900 43m
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 98¢ $100 46m
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 98¢ $43 47m
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $1,285 47m
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 98¢ $39 50m
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 98¢ $457 51m
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 92¢ $296 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 93¢ $3,201 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 92¢ $24 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 92¢ $608 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 93¢ $489 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 92¢ $146 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 92¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 92¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 93¢ $63 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 92¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 92¢ $122 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 92¢ $24 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 92¢ $146 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 88¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 88¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 88¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 88¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 88¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 88¢ $43 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,609.88 · official $21,609.89 (match) · 3500 history records