Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:03:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfeaa…d0aa sports 464 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,351 (+8%) realized +$1,358 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate64%291W / 163L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$11
14 days−$21
30 days+$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,235
other 2% −$48
crypto 0% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.8% -22.9% 75% 50% -18.6%
≤30d 71 +1.9% -7.8% 66% 56% +3.0%
≤90d 354 -0.9% -10.3% 63% 57% -2.4%
all 454 +3.9% -6.0% 64% 56% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 56% -2.6%
10% -15.0% 44% -11.9%
15% -23.2% 29% -20.4%
20% -30.7% 20% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$1,358
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses291 / 163
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions10
Markets (closed)454 / 464
History coverage248d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-36%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-39%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 12¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win MSI 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $32 +$5 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $28 +$4 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $25 +$2 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $23 −$23 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $43 +$77 +179%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$11 -50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$3 +157%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $96 +$46 +48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $66 +$30 +46%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $95 +$16 +17%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $45 +$1 +1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $33 +$15 +46%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $21 +$12 +58%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $25 +$14 +57%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $21 −$21 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $11 +$10 +93%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $189 −$185 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $168 +$109 +64%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $98 +$70 +71%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $80 +$18 +22%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $70 +$10 +15%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $120 −$118 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $103 +$17 +16%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $82 +$21 +26%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $109 +$44 +40%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $76 +$33 +43%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $133 −$55 -42%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 04 $4 −$4 -97%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $64 +$10 +16%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $56 +$9 +16%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $107 +$8 +7%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $91 −$32 -35%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $44 +$18 +40%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $31 +$13 +41%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $20 −$12 -61%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $72 +$209 +291%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $29 +$23 +81%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $18 +$11 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 12¢ $2 32m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $37 34m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $32 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $32 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $28 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $27 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 5d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 43¢ $1 7d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 10d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $25 11d
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13d
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 13d
Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $120 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 8¢ $2 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 33¢ $41 14d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 19¢ $13 14d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 40¢ $11 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 9¢ $20 15d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $21 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.52 · official $23.53 (match) · 1026 history records